Wintrust Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Wintrust Financial Corp

WTFCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $123.62median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $141.82Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.6B

Enterprise Value $13.3B

Shares Outstanding 68.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Wintrust entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: six consecutive quarters of record net income, 20% year-over-year growth in first-half net income, double-digit annualized quarterly loan and deposit growth, and low problem-loan and charge-off ratios. The balanced view reflects modest net-interest-margin compression.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$167.00

Mean target$180.07

High · most bullish analyst$195.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$130.0020%

Funding competition and lower asset yields compress net interest margin, while commercial credit costs rise and expense growth prevents positive operating leverage. These pressures would weaken earnings momentum and constrain tangible-book-value growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$180.0756%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and deposit growth moderates from the second quarter's annualized pace, but net interest income continues expanding as management anticipates. Credit quality remains controlled, while margin pressure and expense growth limit valuation expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$210.0024%

Strong commercial and commercial-real-estate pipelines translate into sustained balance-sheet growth, net interest margin stabilizes near its recent range, and low credit losses permit operating leverage and continued tangible-book-value growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 was Wintrust's sixth consecutive quarter of record net income, and first-half net income increased 20% year over year.
Second-quarter loans and deposits increased at annualized rates of 12% and 15%, respectively, with management reporting solid lending pipelines.
Credit performance remained favorable, with non-performing loans at 0.32% of loans and annualized net charge-offs at 0.10%.

Key Investment Risks

GAAP net interest margin declined four basis points sequentially to 3.50% as loan yields fell.
Second-quarter non-interest expense rose $14.9 million sequentially to $397.5 million, although seasonal marketing and incentive costs contributed.
Commercial and commercial-real-estate lending exposes results to borrower stress, real-estate conditions and potentially higher future provisions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.