Upstart Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)1.78 Intrinsic Value $30.93median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.99Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Shares Outstanding 105.7M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Upstart Holdings, Inc. is navigating a critical transition phase in 2026. While the company demonstrated robust top-line recovery in Q1 2026 with originations up 61% and revenue up 44% year-over-year, it remains GAAP unprofitable due to front-loaded operating expenses and product mix shifts. The strategic decision to apply for a national bank charter in March 2026 represents a structural pivot that could significantly lower its cost of capital and de-risk its funding model over the long term. However, near-term performance remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic interest rate cycles and institutional capital market appetite, justifying a Hold rating until profitability stabilizes and the bank charter path becomes clearer. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$40.60 High · most bullish analyst$61.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.00 Interest rates remain elevated for longer, suppressing loan demand and causing institutional funding partners to pull back capital. Regulatory delays or denial of the national bank charter application prolong Upstart's reliance on volatile third-party funding, while credit performance on newer vintages deteriorates, leading to compressed margins and continued GAAP losses. Base CaseCentral scenario $40.60 Matches the consensus meanUpstart executes on its reiterated full-year 2026 guidance of approximately $1.4 billion in revenue and $294 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The macroeconomic environment remains stable, and the company achieves GAAP profitability in the second half of 2026 as front-loaded expenses moderate, while the bank charter application progresses through regulatory channels. Bull CaseUpside scenario $61.00 The Federal Reserve initiates multiple rate cuts, driving a surge in consumer loan demand and improving conversion rates. Concurrently, Upstart secures its national bank charter, allowing it to fund originations with low-cost FDIC-insured deposits, dramatically expanding net interest margins and accelerating GAAP profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |