Universal Insurance Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $52.20median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.09Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $737.1M Shares Outstanding 28.9M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE) is demonstrating exceptional operational momentum, highlighted by a stellar Q1 2026 performance where the net combined ratio improved to 89.7% and annualized adjusted ROCE reached 38.5%. The company has successfully navigated the challenging Florida property insurance market by leveraging sweeping legislative tort reforms, executing disciplined rate adjustments, and expanding its footprint in non-Florida states (which grew 18.3% in Q1 2026). Furthermore, UVE has fully secured its 2026-2027 reinsurance program with a stable $45 million retention and expanded its tower to $2.623 billion, significantly mitigating catastrophe volatility. Trading at an attractive valuation relative to its high return profile, UVE offers a compelling risk-reward opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the hardening property and casualty insurance sector. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$45.00 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A highly active hurricane season leads to multiple catastrophe events that exhaust the $45 million retention multiple times, severely impacting earnings. Additionally, any legislative rollbacks or a resurgence in litigation inflation could compress underwriting margins and stall book value growth. Base CaseCentral scenario Underwriting margins remain strong as rate increases continue to earn through the book and Florida's legislative reforms keep litigation costs low. Non-Florida expansion continues to diversify the risk profile, and the company maintains its steady capital return program through dividends and share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |