OppFi Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

OppFi Inc

OPFINYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryCredit Services

Beta (adjusted)1.54

Intrinsic Value $30.79median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $5.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 418% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+418%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $507M

Enterprise Value $728.4M

Shares Outstanding 85.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Apr 2025

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

OppFi is a highly profitable, tech-enabled specialty finance platform trading at a significant discount to its growth potential. The company's core business of partnering with community banks to extend credit to underbanked Americans generates exceptional returns on equity (adjusted ROE of 51.5% in FY2025). The announced acquisition of BNCCORP, Inc. (expected to close in Q4 2026) is a transformative catalyst that will transition OppFi into a bank holding company, lowering its cost of capital, expanding its product suite, and driving substantial EPS accretion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.50

Mean target$12.64

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0020%

Regulatory hurdles delay or block the BNCCORP acquisition, keeping OppFi reliant on higher-cost warehouse facilities. Macroeconomic headwinds worsen, causing net charge-offs to spike above 55% and forcing aggressive credit tightening that shrinks loan originations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.6450%

Matches the consensus mean

OppFi successfully executes its bank-led expansion strategy, maintaining its FY2026 guidance of $650M-$675M in revenue and $153M-$160M in adjusted net income. Elevated credit losses are managed through disciplined underwriting, and the BNCCORP transaction closes in late 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$15.0030%

The BNCCORP acquisition closes smoothly in Q4 2026, immediately unlocking low-cost deposit funding and driving over 50% EPS accretion by year three. Credit quality improves as Model 7 underwriting rolls out, driving net charge-offs down and expanding adjusted net income margins.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Transformative BNCCORP acquisition expected to lower funding costs and drive 25%+ adjusted EPS accretion in year one post-closing.
Highly automated platform with 92.5% of underwriting decisions automated, enabling rapid scalability and high operating leverage.
Exceptional profitability metrics, including an adjusted ROE of 51.5% and adjusted ROA of 20.0% in FY2025.
Strong cash generation with $69.3 million in free cash flow in Q1 2026, supporting a new $40 million share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated credit losses and net charge-offs (reaching 55%-55.5% of average receivables in Q1 2026) pressuring adjusted profitability.
Regulatory and execution risks associated with closing the BNCCORP acquisition and transitioning to a bank holding company.
Sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, including persistent inflation and low consumer sentiment affecting underbanked borrowers.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Rejection or indefinite delay of the BNCCORP acquisition by banking regulators.
Net charge-offs consistently exceeding 60% of average receivables, indicating a failure of proprietary underwriting models.
A material decline in quarterly originations (greater than 20% YoY) that severely limits top-line growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.