Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryCargo Ground Transportation Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $169.62median of 6 methods · middle span $156-$306based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $178.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $36.9B Enterprise Value $36.7B Shares Outstanding 207.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Old Dominion's second-quarter 2026 results demonstrated strong pricing, service execution and operating leverage despite continuing freight-volume contraction. Revenue increased 10.4%, operating income increased 30.0%, and the operating ratio improved to 70.1%, while LTL tons per day declined 4.1%. The balanced Hold view recognizes exceptional service quality and margin performance but requires clearer evidence of sustained shipment and tonnage recovery before adopting a more constructive stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$156.00 Mean target$231.68 High · most bullish analyst$280.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $156.0020% A prolonged freight downturn keeps shipment and tonnage trends negative while labor, equipment, fuel or technology costs rise. Pricing becomes insufficient to offset lower network density and cost inflation, causing the operating ratio to deteriorate toward or beyond its second-quarter 2025 level. Base CaseCentral scenario $231.6855% Matches the consensus meanTonnage remains soft before gradually stabilizing, while disciplined pricing and cost control preserve an operating ratio near recent levels. Revenue quality and service performance offset weak shipment counts, producing profitable but uneven growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $280.0025% Freight demand normalizes, LTL tons per day returns to growth, and Old Dominion converts available network capacity into incremental market share while preserving disciplined yield management. Continued 99% on-time service and low cargo claims support customer retention and pricing power. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |