Enova International Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $88.58median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $171.49Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $9.2B Shares Outstanding 26.1M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Enova International is a high-quality online financial services provider leveraging advanced machine learning and proprietary analytics to serve underserved consumers and small businesses. The company is demonstrating robust operational momentum, highlighted by a 33% year-over-year surge in Q1 2026 originations and a 17% increase in revenue to a record $875 million. The core investment thesis centers on Enova's pending acquisition of Grasshopper Bank, expected to close in the second half of 2026. This transformative transaction will transition Enova into a bank holding company, securing a low-cost deposit funding base that is projected to reduce funding costs by 300 to 400 basis points and drive over 25% post-synergy EPS accretion. Supported by strong credit discipline—with its net charge-off ratio falling sequentially and year-over-year to 7.6%—Enova is well-positioned to deliver sustainable, highly profitable growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$257.00 Mean target$277.14 High · most bullish analyst$300.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $257.0010% Regulatory approvals for the Grasshopper Bank acquisition face unexpected delays or restrictive conditions, postponing the realization of lower funding costs. Concurrently, a softening macroeconomic environment pressures the subprime consumer and small business segments, leading to elevated delinquency rates and rising charge-offs that compress net revenue margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $277.1460% Matches the consensus meanEnova successfully completes the Grasshopper Bank acquisition in late 2026, with integration progressing in line with management's expectations. Originations grow by approximately 20% year-over-year, and credit metrics remain stable with net charge-offs hovering around 7.5% to 8.0%. The company achieves its guided full-year adjusted EPS growth of at least 25%, supported by strong small business lending momentum. Bull CaseUpside scenario $300.0030% The acquisition of Grasshopper Bank closes smoothly in H2 2026, unlocking rapid funding cost reductions and immediate deposit synergies. Small business and consumer credit demand remains highly resilient, allowing Enova to exceed its raised full-year 2026 guidance of at least 25% adjusted EPS growth. Advanced AI-driven underwriting continues to drive down net charge-off ratios below historical averages, leading to significant margin expansion and multiple re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |