Commerce Bancshares Inc Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $56.91median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $54.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.9B Shares Outstanding 143.4M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) continues to demonstrate strong core operating performance, highlighted by its recent Q2 2026 earnings beat where diluted EPS reached $1.10, driven by a robust net interest margin of 3.77% and solid non-interest income growth. The bank maintains exceptional credit quality with net charge-offs at just 0.19% of average loans. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation relative to regional banking peers (P/E of ~14.3x and P/B of ~1.7x-1.9x), which limits near-term upside. Given the balanced risk-reward profile, stable deposit base, and conservative underwriting, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$62.00 Mean target$65.22 High · most bullish analyst$73.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $62.0015% The bear case is triggered by rapid rate cuts compressing NIM faster than deposit costs can be adjusted, combined with a broader economic slowdown in the Midwest that increases net charge-offs above 0.35% and dampens loan demand. Base CaseCentral scenario $65.2260% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes stable net interest income with NIM hovering around 3.65%-3.80% as funding costs stabilize. Moderate loan growth in commercial portfolios and steady fee income from trust and card services will support EPS of $4.20-$4.45. Capital returns will continue through steady dividend increases and disciplined share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $73.0025% The bull case is driven by a step-function expansion in wealth management and advisory fees, accelerated by the integration of Nolan & Associates. Additionally, if interest rates remain elevated or the yield curve steepens further, CBSH's asset-sensitive balance sheet could drive NIM expansion toward 4.00%, leading to upward earnings revisions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |