BayCom Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $16.19median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $331.3M Enterprise Value $162.6M Shares Outstanding 10.8M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary BayCom Corp (NASDAQ: BCML) is navigating a major strategic inflection point following a sweeping executive leadership transition in April 2026. The co-founders have stepped down, and a new executive team with deep experience at larger institutions (including PacWest and Heartland Financial) has taken the helm to drive organic growth and pursue larger, transformational M&A. While Q1 2026 financial performance was exceptionally strong—with net income surging 43.5% year-over-year to $8.2 million and NIM expanding to 4.11%—the stock's near-term upside is likely priced in following recent gains. Mainstream analysts have downgraded the stock to Neutral/Hold, reflecting execution risks associated with the new growth strategy and potential CRE credit quality pressures. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$32.67 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Deposit beta pressures intensify, forcing the bank to rely on higher-cost wholesale funding and compressing NIM. Credit quality deteriorates within the commercial real estate portfolio, leading to elevated nonperforming loans and higher provisioning. The transition to the new leadership team experiences friction, delaying strategic M&A plans. Base CaseCentral scenario The new management team successfully stabilizes core deposits and maintains a disciplined loan portfolio while laying the groundwork for regional expansion in Southern California. Organic growth remains steady, and NIM hovers around 4.05% to 4.15%. The bank achieves the consensus forward EPS of $2.81, and the stock trades in line with its historical book value multiple. Bull CaseUpside scenario The appointment of a highly experienced, former PacWest executive team signals a shift toward robust organic growth and disciplined M&A to build a premier Western Regional Bank. This transition, combined with strong credit quality and a solid deposit franchise, is expected to close the organic growth gap and improve the company's trading multiple. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |