Alcoa Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryAluminum Beta (adjusted)1.43 Intrinsic Value $105.14median of 6 methods · middle span $46-$253based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 150% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+150%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.1B Enterprise Value $12.2B Shares Outstanding 267M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Alcoa entered the second half of 2026 with strong aluminum-driven earnings, record quarterly revenue and increased smelter output, but its risk-reward remains balanced by weaker alumina operations at Pinjarra and execution, financing and regulatory uncertainty around the proposed $4.1 billion South32 asset acquisition. The transaction could improve scale, portfolio quality and through-cycle cash generation, while the gallium project adds longer-dated strategic optionality. However, commodity-price sensitivity and acquisition risk support a Hold rather than a directional Buy at the current stage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$49.70 Mean target$62.98 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $49.7023% Aluminum prices normalize sharply, Pinjarra recovery disappoints, and acquisition financing, approval or integration challenges reduce expected value creation. The target uses Alcoa's disclosed 52-week low as a transparent downside reference rather than an invented forecast. Base CaseCentral scenario $62.9858% Matches the consensus meanAluminum operations remain profitable and higher restarted capacity offsets continued softness in alumina, while the South32 transaction advances without a major delay but its benefits remain largely prospective. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0019% Favorable aluminum pricing persists, restarted smelter capacity operates reliably, Pinjarra recovers, and the South32 transaction closes on schedule with credible progress toward the disclosed synergy opportunity. The target uses Alcoa's disclosed 52-week high as a transparent upside reference rather than an unverified analyst forecast. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |