Aflac Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryLife & Health Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.73 Intrinsic Value $82.60median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $111.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $56B Enterprise Value $58.3B Shares Outstanding 502.4M diluted Next Earnings Date1 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aflac's first-half 2026 results show resilient per-share performance, solid capital returns and improving sales in the United States and Japan, but the operating picture remains mixed. Second-quarter adjusted earnings declined, Japan premiums contracted, yen weakness reduced reported results, and higher U.S. benefits compressed segment earnings and margin. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$99.00 Mean target$119.21 High · most bullish analyst$138.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $99.0023% A weaker yen, declining Japan premium persistency, unfavorable U.S. benefits and weaker investment income outweigh sales gains. Sustained pressure on currency-neutral earnings and segment margins reduces the effectiveness of capital returns as an offset. Base CaseCentral scenario $119.2158% Matches the consensus meanSales growth remains positive but moderate, Japan in-force premiums continue to face pressure from paid-up policies and reinsurance, and U.S. claims costs keep margins below the prior-year level. Repurchases and dividends support per-share outcomes while underlying earnings advance slowly. Bull CaseUpside scenario $138.0019% Product initiatives in Japan sustain positive sales momentum, U.S. group voluntary and dental-and-vision sales continue expanding, and claims experience normalizes. Currency-neutral per-share earnings growth, strong adjusted return on equity and continued repurchases then support stronger shareholder value creation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |