ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR Dossier
Valuation
How Intrinsic Value compares with model outputs
Intrinsic Value $29.74median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$151based on filings through 31 Dec 2025
Market Price $19.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026
Valuation methods vs. Market Price
$0$50$100$150$200$250
DCF
$150.89
DNI
$202.87
P/S
$24.46◇ $6.46
P/E
$18.19no ◇ · bar = peer
P/B
$20.35◇ $30.13
PEG
$35.03
$0$50$100$150$200$250
Market Price ($19.42) Intrinsic Value ($29.74) peer-implied value
Company vs. peer median Members
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Assumptions
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Years 1–5: analyst growth pathFive-year total matches analyst consensus exactly. Year 1: -15.0% (near-term consensus, capped) · years 2–5: 23.7%/yr (balance of the path). | 14.8% per year |
Years 6–10: glide to demonstrated growthPer-year ratesYr 620.9%Yr 718.0%Yr 815.2%Yr 912.3%Yr 109.5% | 23.7% → 9.5% |
Years 11–20: glide to long-run ratePer-year ratesYr 118.8%Yr 128.2%Yr 137.5%Yr 146.9%Yr 156.2%Yr 165.6%Yr 174.9%Yr 184.3%Yr 193.6%Yr 203.0% | 9.5% → 3.0% |
| Beyond year 20: terminal growthPerpetual long-run rate | 3.0% |
| Historical EPS growth (multi-year median)median of 3 windows (5/6/7y) | 9.5% |
| Discount rate (cost of equity) | 5.7% |
| Volatility vs market (adjusted beta) | 0.18 |
Valuation Detail Members
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Assumptions Sandbox Members
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Compare with peers
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Best value in each row is highlighted. Figures are periodic snapshots from the same filings used across each dossier; a dash means the figure is not available.