ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)0.18 Intrinsic Value $29.74median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$151based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $19.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 53% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.6B Enterprise Value $14.7B Shares Outstanding 820.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Apr 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ZTO entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: Q2 parcel volume increased 6.5%, market share reached 19.9%, gross margin expanded to 25.7%, and adjusted net income increased 50.3%. Core express pricing also improved as higher-value key-account and reverse-logistics volumes increased. The counterweight is management's reduction of full-year parcel-growth guidance to 6%-10% because industry growth is slowing, together with fuel-cost exposure, competitive and platform concentration risks, and a non-recurring RMB344.3 million tax refund that enhanced reported Q2 earnings. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.23 Mean target$29.15 High · most bullish analyst$32.71 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.2325% Industry parcel growth slows more sharply, ZTO falls below the bottom of its annual volume-growth guidance, and competition or network-partner economics weaken pricing and market share. Fuel and pickup-and-dispatch costs pressure margins, while the absence of the Q2 tax refund exposes a materially slower underlying earnings trajectory. Base CaseCentral scenario $29.1555% Matches the consensus meanParcel growth remains within management's revised 6%-10% range, market share stays near the Q2 level, and operating efficiency offsets part of the pressure from slower industry growth and volatile fuel costs. Profit growth normalizes after the Q2 tax benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.7120% ZTO reaches the upper portion of its 40.8-42.4 billion parcel guidance, continues gaining share, and preserves positive pricing and efficiency trends. Higher-value reverse-logistics activity and automation support margins, while the policy of returning at least 50% of prior-year adjusted net income through dividends and repurchases improves per-ADS outcomes. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |