YPF S.A. Dossier
Outlook & Key Dates
Estimates, guidance, catalysts, and upcoming events
Analyst Estimates Learn more →
Analyst Coverage
12analysts covering
Monitoring Framework
Key Performance Indicators
Shale Oil Production (Vaca Muerta) Quarterly205KTarget: 215,000 barrels per day (full-year average) with a December exit rate of 250,000 barrels per day
Company-wide Upstream Lifting Costs Quarterly8.8Target: Continuous reduction driven by mature field divestments and shale concentration
Adjusted EBITDA Quarterly1.6BTarget: Between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion for full-year 2026
Net Leverage Ratio Quarterly1.6xTarget: Maintain a conservative leverage profile below 2.0x
Watch Items
- Domestic Fuel Pricing and Inflation AlignmentTrigger: Prolonged local price freezes or domestic fuel price lag exceeding international parity by more than 10%Action: Assess impact on downstream refining margins and adjust full-year EBITDA projections accordingly.
- Argentina LNG Project Final Investment Decision (FID)Trigger: Delay of the FID beyond the end of 2026Action: Re-evaluate long-term gas monetization timelines and capital expenditure allocation models.
- Vaca Muerta Sur Pipeline Construction MilestonesTrigger: Delays in pipeline construction or regulatory approvals for the Punta Colorada deep-water terminalAction: Monitor evacuation bottlenecks and construction progress of the VMOS pipeline.
Research as of 2 Sep 2026