YPF S.A. Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Integrated Beta (adjusted)0.27 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $50.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $19.7B Enterprise Value $26.9B Shares Outstanding 392M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2019 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary YPF enters the second half of 2026 with total production of 544 kboe/d and crude-oil production of 265 kbbl/d, while continuing to sell or assign non-core conventional and downstream holdings. The operating trajectory supports additional upside if production remains resilient and portfolio simplification improves strategic focus. However, the issuer's approximately $50.2 ADR quote already reflects meaningful execution expectations, while commodity exposure, Argentina-specific policy conditions, and outstanding judicial proceedings create a wide distribution of outcomes. A Hold recommendation is therefore appropriate pending evidence that production remains above the monitoring thresholds after the recent asset transactions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$48.00 Mean target$59.48 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $48.0020% Total or crude-oil production falls through the monitoring thresholds, portfolio transactions fail to offset operating pressure, or Argentina-specific policy and judicial developments materially increase the discount applied to the ADR. Base CaseCentral scenario $59.4858% Matches the consensus meanProduction remains broadly resilient relative to 2Q26, announced portfolio transactions close without material disruption, and the ADR trades moderately above the issuer-reported reference quote. Bull CaseUpside scenario $78.0022% Production remains at or above the 2Q26 level while conventional-asset assignments and the announced sale of MetroGAS and MetroENERGÍA sharpen YPF's strategic focus. Successful execution and reduced uncertainty support a higher market valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |