WW Grainger Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

WW Grainger Inc

GWWNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value $1,001.67median of 6 methods · middle span $895-$1,276based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,245.76Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $58.7B

Enterprise Value $60.5B

Shares Outstanding 47.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Grainger entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter sales increased 10.3%, daily organic constant-currency sales increased 13.7%, operating margin expanded to 16.1%, and diluted EPS increased 20.5%. Management consequently raised its full-year sales, margin and EPS ranges. The principal near-term question is earnings quality and durability because second-quarter gross profit included a $43 million IEEPA tariff-refund benefit, while geopolitical, tariff and demand uncertainty remain.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1,100.00

Mean target$1,325.43

High · most bullish analyst$1,500.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1,100.0018%

Demand slows below the lower end of guidance, tariff-related price and cost timing becomes less favorable, and the one-time tariff-refund benefit does not recur. Gross margin falls below 39.3%, operating leverage weakens, and full-year EPS finishes below the $45.50 guidance floor.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,325.4358%

Matches the consensus mean

Grainger delivers within its updated 2026 ranges: sales of $19.4-$19.7 billion, operating margin of 15.8%-16.2%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $45.50-$47.25. Organic growth moderates from the unusually strong first half but remains consistent with management's outlook.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,500.0024%

Grainger sustains growth near or above the upper end of its updated outlook, supported by broad High-Touch Solutions demand and continued strong expansion at MonotaRO and Zoro. Pricing offsets tariff-related costs, operating leverage persists, and full-year operating margin and EPS finish near the upper ends of the 16.2% and $47.25 guidance limits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter daily organic constant-currency sales grew 13.7%, prompting management to raise its full-year organic-growth outlook to 11.5%-13.0%.
Second-quarter operating margin increased 120 basis points to 16.1%, while diluted EPS rose 20.5% to $12.01.
Both operating segments contributed: High-Touch Solutions North America grew 11.7% on a daily constant-currency basis, while Endless Assortment grew 20.6% organically in constant currency.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter cost of goods sold benefited by $43 million from IEEPA tariff refunds, making part of the reported gross-margin improvement potentially nonrecurring.
Management identifies tariffs, trade-policy changes, inflation, competitive pricing, supply disruption and broader economic conditions as factors that could cause results to differ from expectations.
Second-quarter operating cash flow was $444 million and was partly constrained by unfavorable working capital, including a material increase in accounts receivable during the first half.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.