World Acceptance Corp Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryConsumer Finance Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $111.97median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $170.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $795.9M Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 4.3M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary World Acceptance Corp (WRLD) is navigating a complex operational pivot. While the company has successfully stabilized its loan portfolio and returned to growth (gross loans up to $1.32B in late FY2026), it faces severe margin pressure. Fiscal 2026 net income fell sharply to $34.59M (diluted EPS of $6.88) from $89.24M in the prior year, driven by an 11.5% increase in credit loss provisions and a 25.3% surge in G&A expenses. Near-term financial covenant relief on its BMO revolving credit facility provides breathing room through Q3 2026, but structural headwinds in subprime credit quality and elevated funding costs warrant a cautious Hold stance until a permanent CEO is appointed and credit metrics stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$210.00 Mean target$210.00 High · most bullish analyst$210.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $120.0020% Subprime consumer defaults rise further, pushing net charge-offs past 20%. The company breaches its FCCR covenant as it reverts to 2.25x post-Q3 2026, forcing restrictive credit tightening, loan portfolio contraction, and dilutive capital actions. Base CaseCentral scenario $154.0050% WRLD achieves modest loan growth but continues to face elevated credit provisions and operating expenses. The company successfully maintains its FCCR covenant above the temporarily reduced 2.10x limit, and the search for a permanent CEO concludes in late 2026, stabilizing investor sentiment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $182.0030% Underwriting analytics and digital transformation drive a faster-than-expected recovery in credit quality. Mid-single-digit loan growth is achieved with lower delinquency rates, while aggressive share buybacks continue to concentrate equity value, driving EPS back toward historical highs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |