WillScot Holdings Corp Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryRental & Leasing Services Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $42.64median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.18Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 148% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+148%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.1B Enterprise Value $6.6B Shares Outstanding 179.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary WillScot Holdings Corp (WSC) is the dominant market leader in North American modular space and portable storage solutions. The company possesses a highly resilient business model characterized by long-term lease durations, strong pricing power, and high returns on capital. However, near-term performance is constrained by cyclical headwinds in non-residential construction, leading to lower fleet utilization. While the company's long-term growth initiatives (such as Value-Added Products penetration) remain highly attractive, a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted until there is clear evidence of a cyclical inflection in utilization and stabilization of the broader construction market. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$29.40 High · most bullish analyst$37.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0015% A prolonged contraction in non-residential construction (indicated by a persistently low Architecture Billings Index) forces WillScot to discount its average monthly rental rates to defend market share. Utilization falls below 55%, and elevated interest expenses on its substantial debt load compress net margins and free cash flow, delaying deleveraging goals. Base CaseCentral scenario $29.4060% Matches the consensus meanSustained but slow recovery in end markets with modular utilization stabilizing around 60-62%. Pricing remains disciplined, supported by the company's massive scale and competitive moat. VAPS penetration continues to grow steadily, offsetting minor volume declines. The company successfully manages its leverage down toward its target range while executing opportunistic share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $37.0025% A rapid recovery in US infrastructure and non-residential construction spending drives modular utilization back toward historical highs of 70%+. Strong execution of the Value-Added Products (VAPS) strategy accelerates average monthly rental rates, while aggressive share repurchases compound free cash flow per share. Valuation multiples expand to reflect its dominant compounding franchise status. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |