Williams-Sonoma Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.32 Intrinsic Value $164.86median of 6 methods · middle span $125-$254based on filings through 2 Aug 2026 Market Price $227.94Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.8B Enterprise Value $25.8B Shares Outstanding 118.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Williams-Sonoma entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with broad-based demand momentum: Q2 comparable brand revenue increased 6.2%, every major reported brand posted positive comparable growth, and management raised its annual revenue, comparable-growth and non-GAAP operating-margin outlook. The offset is that Q2 non-GAAP merchandise margins remained under tariff pressure, while the much stronger GAAP result included material tariff-refund effects that should not be treated as recurring operating performance. The resulting stance is Hold pending evidence that the company can sustain growth while delivering the raised 17.8% to 18.2% full-year non-GAAP operating-margin range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$138.00 Mean target$229.25 High · most bullish analyst$280.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $138.0024% Comparable brand revenue growth falls below 4.0% or non-GAAP operating margin falls below 17.8% as tariff-driven merchandise-margin pressure, elevated oil prices, housing-market weakness or softer discretionary demand outweigh operating efficiencies. Base CaseCentral scenario $229.2555% Matches the consensus meanWilliams-Sonoma delivers fiscal 2026 comparable brand revenue growth within 4.0% to 6.5% and non-GAAP operating margin within 17.8% to 18.2%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $280.0021% Comparable brand revenue growth exceeds the 6.5% upper end of fiscal 2026 guidance and non-GAAP operating margin exceeds 18.2%, supported by continued positive performance across the principal brands, market-share gains and additional supply-chain efficiencies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |