Williams Cos Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Williams Cos Inc

WMBNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $53.17median of 6 methods · middle span $46-$59based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $67.97Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $83.1B

Enterprise Value $111.1B

Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Williams is executing well operationally: second-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 6% year over year, AFFO increased 10%, dividend coverage was 2.26x, and management raised the 2026 adjusted-EBITDA midpoint to USD 8.4 billion. The Momentum Midstream acquisition and Power Innovation partnership expand exposure to LNG, data-center and power demand, while Blackstone-led capital reduces Williams' direct funding burden. However, the issuer-displayed share price of USD 73.73 already reflects substantial execution optimism, and updated 2026 growth-capex guidance of USD 7.3-7.9 billion raises delivery and financing sensitivity. The risk-reward therefore supports a Hold rather than a new Buy at the current quotation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$69.00

Mean target$84.90

High · most bullish analyst$99.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$69.0018%

Project delays, regulatory obstacles or integration costs weaken the expected contribution from Momentum and Power Innovation. Adjusted EBITDA falls below the USD 8.3 billion guidance floor, growth capex exceeds USD 7.9 billion or leverage rises above the stated 4.0x long-term ceiling, reducing financial flexibility and slowing dividend growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$84.9058%

Matches the consensus mean

Williams achieves approximately the midpoint of its USD 8.3-8.5 billion 2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance, maintains dividend coverage near management's 2.47x midpoint outlook and keeps leverage near the approximately 3.75x pro forma year-end midpoint. Momentum and Power Innovation add long-duration growth, but high capital spending and execution requirements limit near-term multiple expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$99.0024%

The Momentum acquisition closes on expected terms, its fee-based and take-or-pay assets integrate successfully, Williams delivers near the upper end of 2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance, and Power Innovation commercialization accelerates. Blackstone-led funding preserves balance-sheet capacity while Williams advances the Delta Access, Shelby Trough Connector and broader project backlog.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to USD 1.921 billion and AFFO rose 10% to USD 1.450 billion, demonstrating growth across transmission, storage and gathering operations.
Momentum Midstream adds more than 4,000 miles of pipe, over one million dedicated acres and 6 Bcf/d of gathering capacity in the Haynesville, supported by fee-based and take-or-pay contracts.
The Blackstone-led Power Innovation partnership provides USD 5.34 billion of committed capital while Williams retains 51% ownership and commercial and operational control.

Key Investment Risks

Updated 2026 growth-capex guidance of USD 7.3-7.9 billion creates significant construction, cost-control and financing exposure.
The Momentum transaction entails up to USD 5.5 billion of consideration and remains subject to customary closing conditions, including Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance.
Williams identifies permitting, regulation, construction-input availability, interest rates, tariffs, operational hazards and project-execution capability as factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.