WD-40 Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

WD-40 Co

WDFCNASDAQ

SectorMaterials

IndustrySpecialty Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)0.52

Intrinsic Value $180.92median of 6 methods · middle span $137-$256based on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $201.97Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.7B

Enterprise Value $2.8B

Shares Outstanding 13.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

WD-40 Company continues to demonstrate exceptional brand equity, robust pricing power, and high-quality earnings, driven by its 'Must-Win Battles' focusing on geographic expansion, premiumization (Smart Straw and EZ Reach), and Specialist product growth. However, at a trailing P/E multiple of approximately 36x, the stock's premium valuation fully reflects these strengths. Near-term headwinds from elevated crude oil prices (above $110/barrel) and specialty chemical input costs present margin risks, while the ongoing divestiture of its non-core Americas homecare and cleaning portfolio introduces minor operational noise. While the long-term growth runway remains attractive with an estimated $1.4 billion in untapped global market potential, the current risk-reward profile warrants a Hold.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$245.00

Mean target$271.67

High · most bullish analyst$305.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$245.0015%

Sustained high crude oil and distribution costs compress gross margins below the 55.5% floor. Slower-than-expected adoption of premiumized formats in key retail channels and destocking headwinds in distributor markets limit pro forma sales growth to the low single digits, causing fiscal 2026 EPS to miss the guided range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$271.6760%

Matches the consensus mean

WD-40 successfully delivers on its updated fiscal year 2026 guidance, achieving reported net sales of $675 million to $690 million and diluted EPS of $6.05 to $6.35. Gross margins stabilize within the guided 55.5% to 56.5% range, supported by premiumization mix benefits offsetting moderate raw material inflation. The company maintains its disciplined capital allocation, including its $1.02 quarterly dividend and steady share repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$305.0025%

Accelerated global premiumization and geographic expansion in direct markets (such as China and EIMEA) drive high single-digit revenue growth. Gross margins expand beyond the high end of guidance (exceeding 56.5%) due to rapid cooling of specialty chemical costs and favorable foreign exchange tailwinds, leading to significant EPS outperformance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled brand equity with the flagship WD-40 Multi-Use Product, commanding high consumer loyalty and significant pricing power.
Strong margin profile with gross margins consistently tracking above 55%, supported by premiumization initiatives like Smart Straw and EZ Reach.
Substantial long-term growth runway, with management estimating a $1.4 billion untapped global market opportunity.
Consistent shareholder returns, highlighted by a solid dividend growth history and active share repurchase programs.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity of gross margins to fluctuations in specialty chemical and crude oil-based raw material costs.
High valuation multiples (P/E near 36x) leave little room for execution errors or earnings misses.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic instability impacting international sales, particularly in the EIMEA and Asia-Pacific segments.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross margin falling below 55.0% for two consecutive quarters due to unmitigated input cost inflation.
A material slowdown in WD-40 Specialist or e-commerce sales growth to single-digit levels.
Failure to complete the planned divestiture of the Americas homecare and cleaning portfolio, leading to stranded costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.