Wayfair Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Wayfair Inc

WNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryInternet Retail

Beta (adjusted)2.31

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $102.56Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $14B

Enterprise Value $15.8B

Shares Outstanding 132M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Wayfair entered the second half of 2026 with improving demand, customer growth and operating leverage: second-quarter revenue increased 7.5%, active customers increased 3.3%, orders increased 6.0%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 6.9%, and free cash flow was $301 million. The positive operating trajectory is tempered by declining International revenue, a continuing International adjusted EBITDA loss, macroeconomic and tariff sensitivity, and execution risk from physical-store expansion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets28 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$83.00

Mean target$123.25

High · most bullish analyst$156.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$83.0018%

A weaker home-furnishings environment, tariffs or inflation pressure discretionary demand and merchandise economics. Customer growth reverses, revenue growth stalls, International losses persist, and store expansion adds fixed-cost and execution pressure before generating sufficient incremental demand.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$123.2558%

Matches the consensus mean

Wayfair retains positive customer and order momentum and continues taking category share, but growth moderates and International operations remain a drag. Adjusted EBITDA stays positive while physical-store expansion is paced against cash generation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$156.0024%

Share capture persists while customer and order growth reinforce one another. Specialty retail brands continue their nearly 20% growth trajectory, Perigold sustains outsized growth, and expanding stores introduce incremental customers without weakening ecommerce economics. Revenue growth continues to produce disproportionate adjusted EBITDA and free-cash-flow improvement.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter demand broadened: active customers reached 21.7 million, up 3.3%, while orders delivered increased 6.0% and LTM net revenue per active customer increased 4.2%.
Operating leverage and cash generation improved, with second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $242 million, a 6.9% margin, and free cash flow of $301 million.
Specialty retail brands grew nearly 20% and Perigold grew more than 35% in the second quarter, while Wayfair's announced store portfolio reached ten planned or operating U.S. locations.

Key Investment Risks

International revenue declined 1.3% in the second quarter and the International segment generated an adjusted EBITDA loss of $19 million.
Management identifies tariffs, inflation, sustained interest rates, economic instability, supply-chain disruption and changes in consumer spending as material uncertainties.
The planned expansion to ten stores introduces capital-allocation and execution risk; the reported Chicago customer-acquisition halo may not replicate across all markets.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.