Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.

WBDNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryMovies & Entertainment

Beta (adjusted)1.37

Intrinsic Value $12.97median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $30.95Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 58% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-58%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $77.6B

Enterprise Value $106.2B

Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

WBD is principally a merger-arbitrage security. Its official investor-relations quote was $28.77 at the August 28, 2026 close, versus contractual consideration of $31.00 per share plus a daily ticking fee equivalent to $0.25 per share per quarter after September 30, 2026. Stockholders have approved the transaction, and Paramount reports that all merger-agreement regulatory clearances have been satisfied, but litigation by 12 state attorneys general remains the final closing obstacle. The approximately $2.23 gross spread to the headline consideration is balanced by delay, litigation and deal-break risk. Operating support is mixed: Q2 generated $572 million of free cash flow and 3.4x net leverage, while revenue fell 12% ex-FX and Adjusted EBITDA fell 6% ex-FX. With probability-weighted scenario value near the current quotation and material downside if the transaction fails, Hold is appropriate.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$26.00

Mean target$29.82

High · most bullish analyst$31.25

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$26.0015%

The transaction is terminated or otherwise fails, removing the contractual cash-value anchor. The downside reference is WBD's officially disclosed unaffected closing price of $12.54 on September 10, 2025. Positive free cash flow and streaming growth could cushion the decline, but continuing linear-audience erosion, advertising pressure and 3.4x net leverage would again dominate standalone valuation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$29.8270%

Matches the consensus mean

The transaction ultimately closes after a negotiated or judicial resolution, with approximately two quarterly ticking-fee periods increasing consideration to $31.50 per share. Stockholder approval and completed regulatory clearances support completion, while the state litigation supports a meaningful timing discount.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$31.2515%

The state litigation is resolved and the transaction closes within the 12-month horizon after approximately four quarterly ticking-fee periods. The resulting consideration approaches $32.00 per share. This outcome assumes the contractual cash price remains intact and that prolonged delay does not produce an adverse amendment or termination.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The $31.00 all-cash merger consideration represents a defined value anchor, and the daily ticking fee equivalent to $0.25 per share per quarter compensates stockholders for delay after September 30, 2026.
WBD stockholders approved the transaction, Paramount reports that required regulatory clearances have been obtained, and Q2 2026 remained free-cash-flow positive despite transaction and separation costs.

Key Investment Risks

Litigation by 12 state attorneys general remains the final obstacle to closing and could delay, alter or prevent the transaction.
Q2 2026 revenue declined 12% ex-FX and Adjusted EBITDA declined 6% ex-FX, with the absence of the NBA and continued domestic linear-audience declines pressuring advertising.
Net leverage remained 3.4x, while quarterly free cash flow has been volatile: negative $476 million in Q1 2026 and positive $572 million in Q2 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.