Vizsla Silver Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryOther Industrial Metals & Mining Beta (adjusted)1.43 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $3.79Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 355.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vizsla Silver Corp. is transitioning from a high-grade explorer to a tier-1 silver producer through the development of its 100%-owned Panuco silver-gold project in Sinaloa, Mexico. Backed by a robust November 2025 Feasibility Study, the project boasts exceptional economics including an after-tax NPV (5%) of US$1.8B and a 111% IRR at base-case metal prices. The company is fully funded for construction following a major $300M convertible notes package, significantly reducing near-term dilution risk. While jurisdictional and security risks in Sinaloa remain key overhangs, the massive exploration upside (with less than 30% of known veins tested) and a clear path to first production in H2 2027 present a highly compelling risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.71 Mean target$6.71 High · most bullish analyst$6.71 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.7125% Permitting delays or heightened security challenges in Sinaloa halt on-site development and delay first production into 2028 or beyond. Capital costs escalate due to supply chain pressures, and the company is forced to draw on debt facilities or seek additional dilutive financing, compressing the project's net asset value. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.7155% Matches the consensus meanVizsla obtains the MIA permit in Q3 2026, proceeds with formal construction, and achieves first silver production in late 2027. The project operates in line with the 2025 Feasibility Study parameters, delivering an average of 17.4 Moz AgEq annually at an AISC of ~$10.61/oz. The company successfully navigates local security and community relations, gradually re-rating toward producer multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.7120% A structural silver deficit and a commodity super-cycle drive silver prices to sustained highs. Vizsla successfully secures its MIA permit ahead of schedule, accelerates construction with FLSmidth, and achieves first silver pour in early H2 2027. Aggressive district-scale exploration continues to convert inferred resources, allowing the company to expand mill capacity to 4,000 tpd ahead of schedule and extend the mine life beyond 15 years. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |