Vistra CorpVST
Price$138.35Intrinsic value$343.16148% above price

Qualitative Analysis

Business overview

Business Overview

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is a leading Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas. The company operates one of the largest competitive power generation fleets in the United States, with approximately 44 gigawatts (GW) of highly diversified capacity spanning natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Vistra's generation mix is heavily anchored by dispatchable resources, with natural gas accounting for over 60% of total capacity, followed by coal at 20% and nuclear at 15%. This generation footprint is paired with a robust retail electricity business that serves approximately 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across competitive markets from California to Maine. Vistra's integrated business model provides a natural hedge, balancing wholesale power generation with stable retail customer demand.

Research as of 29 Jul 2026

Sources: 3

Strategic Initiatives

Growth programs, investments, and their expected impact

AI-assisted
Vistra Zero Clean Energy ExpansionGrowth

Strategically growing Vistra's fleet of zero-carbon resources, focusing on nuclear, solar, and energy storage. Key projects include the construction of the Newton Solar & Energy Storage Facility (52-MW solar/2-MW storage in MISO) and the Deer Creek Solar & Energy Storage Facility (50-MW solar/50-MW storage in CAISO).

Expected impact: Expands zero-carbon generation capacity to meet rising clean energy demand from hyperscalers and large load customers.

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InvestmentPart of the company's disciplined capital allocation plan, which balances growth investments with shareholder returns.
TimelineOngoing, with Deer Creek expected online in mid-2026.
West Texas Natural Gas Power ExpansionExpansion

Planning and constructing two new natural gas power units in West Texas, totaling approximately 860 MW of dispatchable capacity.

Expected impact: Aims to address the rapidly growing power needs in the Permian Basin as the oil and gas industry electrifies its operations.

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InvestmentFunded through existing liquidity and cash flow from operations.
TimelineAnnounced in September 2025; engineering and construction activities are underway.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Shareholder ReturnsEfficiency

Executing a structured capital allocation program prioritizing share repurchases and consistent dividend payments. The program is supported by a board-authorized $1.0 billion expansion of the share repurchase program announced in late 2025.

Expected impact: Reduces outstanding share count (already reduced by ~30% since November 2021) and enhances long-term shareholder value.

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InvestmentTargeting approximately $1.0 billion in annual share repurchases and $300 million in annual dividend payments.
TimelineExpected to utilize the remaining share repurchase authorization by year-end 2027.

Mergers, Acquisitions & Partnerships

Recent deals and strategic collaborations

AI-assisted

Recent Acquisitions

Cogentrix Energy$3.3B

Acquisition of 10 modern natural gas-fueled generation facilities totaling approximately 5,500 MW of capacity located across PJM, New England, New York, and ERCOT. The transaction strengthens Vistra's dispatchable generation footprint and contracted revenue base.

Financial impact: Funded in part by the issuance of $2.25 billion in senior secured notes in January 2026. Expected to be highly accretive to Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow post-closing, with financial contributions excluded from current 2026 guidance.

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Lotus Infrastructure Partners (7 Natural Gas Plants)$1BComplete
Announced 15 May 2025

Acquisition of seven modern natural gas generation facilities totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity across PJM, New England, New York, and California, enhancing Vistra's grid reliability and dispatchable power capabilities.

Financial impact: Contributed to record Q1 2026 financial results and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA.

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Energy Harbor Corp.$3.4BComplete
Announced 6 Mar 2023

Combines Energy Harbor's nuclear and retail businesses with Vistra's under a newly-formed subsidiary, Vistra Vision. The transaction created a leading integrated retail electricity and zero-carbon generation company with the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the U.S.

Financial impact: Significantly scaled Vistra's zero-carbon generation capacity by adding over 4,000 MW of nuclear power and approximately 1 million retail customers, driving substantial synergies and cash flow growth.

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Strategic Partnerships

Meta Platforms, Inc.Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

High; Vistra signed long-term PPAs with Meta, including power supplied from the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant in Pennsylvania, to support Meta's growing data center power requirements with reliable, zero-carbon baseload energy.

Terms: 20-year term; financial terms are confidential but expected to begin contributing to Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA starting in 2027.

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Amazon Web Services (AWS)Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

High; long-term PPAs signed to supply clean energy to AWS data centers, strengthening Vistra's contracted revenue profile and positioning the company as a key infrastructure partner for hyperscale cloud providers.

Terms: Long-term contract; specific financial terms are confidential.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.