Vistra Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders Beta (adjusted)1.28 Intrinsic Value $343.16median of 6 methods · middle span $82-$1,818based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $138.35Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 148% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+148%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $46.4B Enterprise Value $65.6B Shares Outstanding 346.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vistra's operating evidence is constructive: second-quarter ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% year over year, full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, forward generation was substantially hedged, and the fleet delivered at least 97% commercial availability during recent extreme heat. The longer-term opportunity includes Cogentrix, contracted demand, and Helix Digital Infrastructure, while repurchases can continue reducing the share count. A Hold recommendation therefore balances strong execution against commodity, outage, integration, capital-commitment, and valuation uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$106.00 Mean target$221.28 High · most bullish analyst$313.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $106.0017% Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA falls below $6.8 billion, fleet availability weakens below 97% during critical periods, or acquisition and development execution requires more capital or time than expected. Commodity-price movements and hedge accounting could amplify reported volatility. Base CaseCentral scenario $221.2858% Matches the consensus meanVistra delivers within its reaffirmed $6.8-$7.6 billion 2026 ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA range and retains credible visibility toward the stated $7.4-$7.8 billion 2027 opportunity. High hedge coverage and continued repurchases support execution, while acquisition and development benefits arrive progressively. Bull CaseUpside scenario $313.0025% Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA finishes above the $7.6 billion upper end of 2026 guidance, the 2027 opportunity exceeds $7.8 billion, fleet availability remains at least 97% during peak periods, and Cogentrix, Meta-related contracts, and Helix improve the growth runway without materially impairing capital returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |