VICI Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryOther Specialized REITs Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $26.71median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.97Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $25.3B Enterprise Value $41.9B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VICI's operating momentum remains constructive: second-quarter 2026 AFFO increased 7.8% to $679.6 million, AFFO per share rose 4.6% to $0.62, and management updated full-year AFFO guidance to $2.675-$2.695 billion, or $2.45-$2.47 per diluted share. Completed transactions expanded the tenant roster to 16 and broadened the portfolio, while $2.5 billion of liquidity supports continued investment. The offset is a $17.218 billion debt load, exposure to tenant credit and discretionary travel and gaming demand, and execution risk from acquisition and development activity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$27.00 Mean target$32.54 High · most bullish analyst$38.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.0020% AFFO per share falls below $2.45 because tenant-credit pressure, weaker discretionary travel or gaming demand, acquisition underperformance, or higher refinancing costs outweigh contractual growth. Liquidity declines and elevated debt limits capital deployment or increases dependence on dilutive equity funding. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.5455% Matches the consensus meanAFFO per share remains within management's $2.45-$2.47 range, with transaction contributions and contractual rent growth offset partly by financing costs and share issuance. Liquidity remains adequate and the $0.45 quarterly dividend is maintained. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.0025% AFFO per share reaches or exceeds the upper end of the $2.45-$2.47 guidance range as the Golden Entertainment, Northfield Park, Gamehost, and Club Med investments contribute as expected. Tenant diversification, contractual rent escalation, and continued access to liquidity support durable per-share growth without materially weakening the balance sheet. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |