Vail Resorts Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Vail Resorts Inc

MTNNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryResorts & Casinos

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $98.50median of 5 methods · middle span $47-$179based on filings through 30 Apr 2026

Market Price $137.18Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.9B

Enterprise Value $7.7B

Shares Outstanding 35.6M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date9 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend25 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Vail Resorts (MTN) possesses a highly defensive, nearly irreplaceable portfolio of 42 premier mountain resorts globally, protected by immense barriers to entry and a structural advance-commitment model (the Epic Pass). However, the 2025-2026 ski season has been severely impacted by historically poor weather and low snowfall across the western United States, leading to a 15% drop in skier visits and a subsequent downward revision of full-year guidance. While returning 'boomerang' CEO Rob Katz is actively steering strategic initiatives to simplify the guest experience, leverage technology, and attract price-sensitive Gen Z consumers, near-term headwinds from soft early season pass sales (down 10% in units) and compressed margins warrant a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$119.00

Mean target$147.23

High · most bullish analyst$195.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects persistent unfavorable weather patterns due to climate volatility, combined with a broader macroeconomic slowdown that dampens luxury discretionary travel. Early season pass sales declines persist into the autumn, forcing promotional pricing that dilutes yields. High fixed costs and elevated leverage pressure free cash flow, putting the dividend safety under scrutiny.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that weather conditions normalize for the 2026-2027 ski season, driving a strong historical recovery in skier visits. Early season pass sales softness is partially mitigated by late-summer and autumn sales windows, supported by targeted Gen Z discounts and marketing. Cost-efficiency initiatives and stable high-end consumer demand support a recovery in Resort Reported EBITDA toward historical levels, maintaining the secure ~7% dividend yield.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Irreplaceable asset base with virtually zero net supply growth in destination ski resorts over the last several decades.
Pioneering advance-commitment model (Epic Pass) that secures recurring revenue and partially cushions weather-driven volatility.
Strong alignment of interest with returning 'boomerang' CEO Rob Katz, who recently demonstrated confidence by purchasing $5 million of stock on the open market.
Attractive capital return profile with a high dividend yield of approximately 6.8% supported by robust long-term cash flow generation.

Key Investment Risks

Extreme sensitivity to weather and climate change, as demonstrated by the historically warm and dry 2025-2026 winter season.
Softness in early season pass sales for the 2026-2027 season, indicating potential maturity or temporary demand impairment.
High fixed-cost structure and operational leverage, which amplifies the bottom-line impact of visitation declines.
Labor and operational headwinds, including historical strikes and disputes with resort staff and ski patrols.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A double-digit decline in final season pass sales for the 2026-2027 season, indicating structural demand erosion rather than cyclical weather impacts.
A reduction or suspension of the quarterly cash dividend, signaling severe cash flow distress.
Failure to stabilize Resort Reported EBITDA above $735 million for fiscal 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.