Unum Group Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Life Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $43.77median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $87.73Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 50% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-50%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.9B Enterprise Value $17.5B Shares Outstanding 158.5M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary At the latest issuer-posted closing price of $93.05 on August 28, 2026, Unum's strong core profitability and capital position appear substantially reflected in the shares. Second-quarter core premium growth was 3.6% in constant currency, core adjusted operating return on equity was 21.4%, and year-to-date capital return was approximately $750 million. Management maintained 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $8.60-$8.90. The announced $3.8 billion LTC reinsurance transaction could materially reduce legacy exposure, but regulatory closing risk, a 97.8% Closed Block net premium ratio, and weaker group-disability and UK claims results temper the upside. The resulting risk/reward supports a Hold with a $100 base-case target. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$101.46 High · most bullish analyst$122.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $72.0025% The LTC transaction is delayed or its financing consumes more flexibility than anticipated, the Closed Block net premium ratio exceeds 100%, disability and UK claims remain elevated, and weaker capital generation forces slower repurchases despite adequate regulatory capital. Base CaseCentral scenario $101.4655% Matches the consensus meanAdjusted operating EPS lands near management's $8.60-$8.90 range, the LTC transaction closes without material deterioration from the stated post-transaction capital ranges, and core premium growth remains positive while elevated claims ratios gradually stabilize. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0020% The LTC transaction closes during 2026, reducing cumulative LTC statutory reserves by approximately 40%; core premium growth remains positive; benefit ratios improve; adjusted operating EPS reaches the high end of guidance; and strong capital generation supports continued dividends and repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |