Unitedhealth Group Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryManaged Health Care Beta (adjusted)0.75 Intrinsic Value $401.71median of 6 methods · middle span $320-$535based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $367.08Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $329.5B Enterprise Value $374.2B Shares Outstanding 905M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UnitedHealth Group's second-quarter 2026 release showed improving execution and raised full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $19.50-$20.00 per share. The company also reported completion of all 23 improvements identified through its independent-review program. These developments support a recovery thesis, but the official investor-relations page displayed a $392.96 share price on August 30, 2026, leaving only moderate risk-adjusted upside under the base scenario. Execution remains important as Optum Rx transitions group purchasing to flat service fees by the end of 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$313.00 Mean target$475.23 High · most bullish analyst$529.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $313.0025% A renewed guidance reduction, weaker execution, or disruption from business-practice and pharmacy-pricing changes would undermine the recovery premise and could produce material downside from the August 30 reference price. Base CaseCentral scenario $475.2357% Matches the consensus meanManagement delivers within its updated 2026 adjusted EPS range while implementation of governance and pharmacy-pricing reforms progresses without major disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $529.0018% A sustained operating recovery, performance near or above the upper end of the $19.50-$20.00 adjusted EPS outlook, and effective implementation of the independent-review and Optum Rx transparency initiatives could improve confidence in execution and support a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |