United Parcel Service Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAir Freight & Logistics Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value $103.59median of 6 methods · middle span $73-$121based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $93.44Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $79.5B Enterprise Value $98.4B Shares Outstanding 852M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UPS entered the second half of 2026 with an improving operating trajectory: second-quarter consolidated revenue and adjusted operating profit grew year over year, adjusted operating margin expanded, management raised full-year revenue, adjusted operating-profit and adjusted-EPS guidance, and the network program had delivered approximately $1.2 billion of first-half benefits toward approximately $3.0 billion expected for the year. The balanced view is Hold because realizing the raised outlook still depends on completing a large network and workforce transformation amid trade-policy, macroeconomic and significant-customer uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$76.00 Mean target$115.96 High · most bullish analyst$135.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $76.0023% UPS falls below its raised outlook because network-reconfiguration benefits arrive more slowly than expected or trade-policy, macroeconomic and significant-customer pressures weaken demand or pricing. The substantial transformation charges recorded in the first half illustrate the execution burden even though management excludes those charges from adjusted guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $115.9657% Matches the consensus meanUPS broadly meets its raised 2026 outlook of approximately $91.2 billion in consolidated revenue, approximately $8.65 billion in adjusted operating profit and approximately $7.22 in adjusted diluted EPS while completing the Amazon glide-down and progressing the network reconfiguration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $135.0020% UPS delivers at least the approximately $3.0 billion of expected 2026 network-program benefits, sustains the second-quarter improvement in adjusted profitability, and raises its approximately $8.65 billion adjusted operating-profit outlook. Continued pricing strength and growth in forwarding, logistics and healthcare would reinforce the upside case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |