Union Pacific Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryRailroads Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $244.20median of 6 methods · middle span $222-$314based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $272.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $161.7B Enterprise Value $191.9B Shares Outstanding 591.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Union Pacific entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 12%, diluted EPS increased 7%, freight-car velocity improved 5% and terminal dwell improved 7%. Management raised its 2026 EPS-growth outlook to high-single digits while retaining its operating-ratio-improvement and $3.3 billion capital-plan objectives. The proposed Norfolk Southern combination could create substantial long-term network benefits, but it remains subject to Surface Transportation Board review and introduces approval, execution, integration, dilution and credit risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$245.00 Mean target$329.25 High · most bullish analyst$375.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $245.0020% A mixed economy, adverse fuel or business mix, or weaker network execution reverses recent operating gains. The Norfolk Southern review is delayed, conditioned heavily or unsuccessful, leaving merger costs, management distraction and potential financing or credit consequences without the anticipated network benefits. Base CaseCentral scenario $329.2555% Matches the consensus meanUnion Pacific continues to generate pricing above inflation, modest operating-ratio improvement and strong cash generation while the STB conducts its merits review. The Norfolk Southern transaction remains pending but progresses under the procedural schedule, and stand-alone execution supports management's high-single-digit 2026 EPS-growth outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $375.0025% The railroad sustains strong service and productivity, delivers high-single-digit or better 2026 EPS growth, and secures STB approval for the Norfolk Southern transaction near the expected mid-2027 timetable. The combined-network opportunity expands single-line service, removes interchange delays and ultimately captures a meaningful portion of the disclosed operating and shipper benefits. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |