UMB Financial Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

UMB Financial Corp

UMBFNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.85

Intrinsic Value $146.57median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $130.01Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.9B

Enterprise Value $4.7B

Shares Outstanding 79.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

UMB entered the second half of 2026 with strong organic loan growth, improving profitability, low charge-offs and rising regulatory capital. These strengths are balanced by a sequential decline in reported net interest margin, flat average deposits, reduced noninterest-bearing deposit mix and a meaningful contribution from potentially volatile private-investment gains.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$159.00

Mean target$167.31

High · most bullish analyst$181.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$159.0017%

Funding competition, further margin pressure or credit normalization could offset organic loan growth. The downside would be amplified if private-investment gains reverse or if stronger loan production is not matched by durable deposit growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$167.3158%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and fee growth remain favorable, but normalization of purchase-accounting accretion, flat average deposits and a lower noninterest-bearing funding mix moderate the outlook. Credit quality and capital remain supportive.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$181.0025%

Sustained commercial loan production, stable core margin, continued low credit losses and durable fee growth could extend earnings momentum. The second quarter showed 12.6% annualized linked-quarter average-loan growth, a 14.22% operating return on average common equity and a stronger 11.45% CET1 ratio.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Average loans grew 12.6% on a linked-quarter annualized basis in the second quarter of 2026, while net charge-offs were only 0.16% of average loans and nonperforming loans improved to 0.31% of total loans.
Second-quarter operating return on average common equity reached 14.22%, the operating efficiency ratio was 48.14%, and operating pre-tax, pre-provision income increased 22.9% year over year.
The CET1 ratio increased to 11.45%, and the board raised the quarterly common dividend by 16.3% to $0.50 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Reported fully taxable-equivalent net interest margin declined six basis points sequentially to 3.32%, principally because purchase-accounting accretion fell and the benefit from free funds decreased.
Average deposits were flat sequentially, while noninterest-bearing deposits declined to 25.5% of average deposits from 26.2%, indicating potential funding-mix pressure.
Second-quarter noninterest income included $27.1 million of private-investment gains, making part of reported fee-income strength dependent on potentially volatile investment outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.