Toll Brothers Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $105.14median of 6 methods · middle span $98-$212based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $134.75Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.4B Enterprise Value $14.1B Shares Outstanding 96.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date8 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Toll Brothers enters the remainder of FY2026 with resilient orders, substantial liquidity and continued community expansion, but near-term earnings quality is mixed. Third-quarter signed contracts increased 5% year over year, while home-sales revenue, diluted EPS and adjusted gross margin declined. Management nevertheless reaffirmed approximately $10.5 billion of FY2026 home-sales revenue and a 26.1% adjusted gross margin, and expects 480-490 communities at fiscal year-end. Against an issuer-reported August 28 share price of $146.22, the balanced operating evidence supports a Hold rather than a more directional recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$122.00 Mean target$168.20 High · most bullish analyst$187.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $122.0018% Affordability pressure weakens contracts, incentives compress adjusted margin below 25%, cancellations rise and impairment charges remain elevated. Base CaseCentral scenario $168.2058% Matches the consensus meanToll Brothers broadly delivers its reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, with community growth and positive contract momentum offsetting lower year-over-year deliveries and margin pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $187.0024% Contract growth persists as community count expands, the affluent customer base remains comparatively resilient and adjusted margin holds near or above full-year guidance. Continued repurchases amplify per-share outcomes. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |