Taiwan Semiconductor Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductor Manufacturing Services Beta (adjusted)1.26 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $459.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.4T Enterprise Value $2.3T Shares Outstanding 5.2B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TSMC's operating evidence remains exceptionally strong: consolidated revenue for January-July 2026 increased 37.0% year over year, July revenue increased 44.7%, and third-quarter guidance calls for US$39.0-US$40.2 billion of revenue with a 65.5%-67.5% gross margin. The strategic case is reinforced by N2 volume production beginning in fourth-quarter 2025, planned second-half 2026 production for N2P and A16, and a broad advanced-packaging portfolio supporting AI and high-performance computing. Hold therefore reflects strong fundamentals balanced against unanchored valuation, execution demands from global capacity expansion, AI-demand concentration, and macroeconomic uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$431.50 Mean target$547.09 High · most bullish analyst$700.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $431.5020% AI infrastructure spending slows materially, year-to-date revenue growth falls below the issuer's strategic benchmark, gross margin misses the third-quarter guidance floor, or N2P/A16 volume production slips beyond 2026. Simultaneous overseas expansion would then increase execution pressure while weaker utilization reduces operating leverage. Base CaseCentral scenario $547.0955% Matches the consensus meanRevenue growth moderates from the exceptional January-July 2026 pace but remains supported by leading-edge and advanced-packaging demand. TSMC substantially delivers its third-quarter guidance and second-half technology roadmap, while global-fab execution costs and macroeconomic uncertainty temper operating leverage. Bull CaseUpside scenario $700.0025% AI and high-performance-computing demand remain structurally strong; revenue growth stays above TSMC's strategic trajectory; gross margin remains within or above guidance; N2 ramps rapidly; and N2P, A16, CoWoS, SoIC and related system-integration technologies extend TSMC's leadership. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |