Suncor Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value $26.01median of 5 methods · middle span $24-$100based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $69.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 62% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-62%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $81.6B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Suncor entered the second half of 2026 with strong cash generation and an accelerated capital-return program: second-quarter free funds flow was C$4.0 billion, and the announced monthly repurchase run-rate increased to C$500 million. The longer-term case is supported by management's 2028 objectives for C$2 billion of normalized free-funds-flow growth, 100,000 barrels per day of upstream growth, and a lower corporate WTI breakeven. However, second-quarter upstream production of 761,000 barrels per day illustrates quarter-to-quarter operating variability, while the 2028 objectives remain forward-looking and commodity-sensitive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$68.07 Mean target$70.86 High · most bullish analyst$75.34 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.0718% Annual upstream production falls below the 840,000-barrel-per-day guidance floor, operating interruptions recur, or weaker commodity realizations materially reduce free funds flow. Under that outcome, monthly repurchases fall below the announced C$500 million run-rate and confidence in the 2028 growth and breakeven objectives deteriorates. Base CaseCentral scenario $70.8658% Matches the consensus meanSuncor broadly delivers within its 840,000-870,000-barrel-per-day 2026 upstream guidance and continues meaningful dividends and repurchases, but progress toward the 2028 targets is gradual and remains exposed to commodity prices and planned or unplanned maintenance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.3424% Operational execution exceeds the lower bound of 2026 production guidance, refining reliability remains strong, and the company makes credible progress toward its 2028 objectives of 100,000 barrels per day of upstream growth, C$2 billion of normalized free-funds-flow growth, and a US$38-per-barrel corporate WTI breakeven. Sustained cash generation supports the C$500 million monthly repurchase pace and the quarterly dividend. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |