Summit State Bank Dossier - Source-backed chat

Summit State Bank

SSBINASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.46

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $12.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $82.9M

Shares Outstanding 6.8M diluted

Last ex-dividend3 Oct 2024

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Summit State Bank (SSBI) is a community bank operating primarily in Sonoma County, California. The bank has shown solid core operating performance with significant net interest margin (NIM) expansion to 3.77% in Q1 2026, driven by loan repricing and liability structure improvements. However, credit quality remains a key concern, with non-performing assets rising to $35.17 million (3.53% of total assets) as of March 31, 2026. To bolster its capital base and manage balance sheet risk, the bank strategically suspended its cash dividend in Q3 2025. Given the elevated credit risks balanced by improving core profitability and strong capital ratios (Tier 1 Leverage of 10.67%), a Hold recommendation is warranted.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.5020%

Credit quality deteriorates further, with non-performing assets rising above $40 million, requiring substantial provisions for credit losses that wipe out profitability. Funding costs rise unexpectedly, compressing NIM back below 3.20% and leading to capital erosion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$13.5055%

The bank maintains a stable NIM around 3.60% to 3.80% while gradually working through its non-performing assets. Credit provisions remain elevated but manageable, preventing further erosion of net income. Capital ratios remain strong, but cash dividends remain suspended in the near term to preserve capital.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$16.5025%

Core profitability continues to improve as NIM expands further due to favorable loan repricing. Credit quality issues are resolved faster than expected, leading to a significant reduction in non-performing assets and a reversal of credit loss provisions. The bank reinstates its quarterly cash dividend, driving positive investor sentiment and multiple expansion.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong core earnings improvement with pre-tax, pre-provision income rising to $3.32 million in Q1 2026.
Significant Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion to 3.77% in Q1 2026 from 3.19% in Q1 2025.
Robust capital position with a Tier 1 Leverage ratio of 10.67%, well above regulatory 'well-capitalized' thresholds.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated non-performing assets of $35.17 million (3.53% of total assets) as of March 31, 2026.
Suspension of quarterly cash dividends since Q3 2025 to preserve capital.
Geographic concentration risk with primary operations located entirely in Sonoma County, California.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Non-performing assets exceeding 4.5% of total assets.
Tier 1 Leverage ratio falling below 9.0%.
Net interest margin compressing below 3.0%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.