SPX Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $196.66median of 6 methods · middle span $139-$304based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $169.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.5B Enterprise Value $8.9B Shares Outstanding 51.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2015 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SPX entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 22.9%, organic growth was 16.9%, and management raised full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance. Detection & Measurement delivered substantial margin expansion, while data-center demand supported HVAC growth and an estimated $1.1 billion of annual data-center revenue capacity at full production. Offsetting these strengths are HVAC start-up inefficiencies, tariff and inflation pressure, acquisition-integration requirements, and increased leverage associated with Neptronic. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$225.00 Mean target$272.17 High · most bullish analyst$310.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $225.0020% Revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls below the low end of raised guidance because data-center capacity expansion encounters delays or inefficiencies, HVAC tariff and inflation pressure persists, project mix normalizes in Detection & Measurement, or recent acquisitions take longer to integrate. Higher acquisition-related borrowing would amplify the effect of an operating shortfall. Base CaseCentral scenario $272.1755% Matches the consensus meanSPX delivers within its raised 2026 revenue range of $2.705-$2.765 billion and adjusted EBITDA range of $630-$660 million. Data-center and Detection & Measurement demand support growth, while HVAC capacity-ramp costs, tariffs and acquisition integration constrain some incremental margin. Bull CaseUpside scenario $310.0025% SPX reaches the upper portions of its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges as data-center cooling demand remains robust, expanded manufacturing capacity ramps efficiently, Neptronic contributes as planned, and Detection & Measurement sustains favorable mix and operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |