Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc

SMBCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.91

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $71.36Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $785.9M

Enterprise Value $869.5M

Shares Outstanding 11.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC) represents a highly resilient, high-performing regional banking franchise operating in stable Midwestern markets. The bank has demonstrated superior execution, characterized by expanding net interest margins (NIM) and robust tangible book value growth. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and agricultural sector pressures, SMBC's conservative underwriting, strong capital position, and proactive share repurchase program position it for continued outperformance relative to small-cap banking peers.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$83.00

Mean target$83.67

High · most bullish analyst$85.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Severe deterioration in the agricultural sector leads to a spike in nonperforming loans and significantly higher provisions for credit losses. Intense deposit competition forces aggressive CD renewal rates, compressing NIM below 3.40%. Operating expenses rise due to technology investments, and loan growth stalls to low-single digits.

Base CaseCentral scenario

SMBC successfully navigates the higher-for-longer interest rate environment by repricing its fixed-rate loan portfolio while managing deposit beta. Net interest margin remains stable above 3.55%, supported by $646 million in fixed-rate loans repricing over the next 12 months. Loan growth continues at a mid-single-digit pace, and credit quality remains well-controlled with stable ACL levels. Share repurchases continue to enhance EPS.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion to 3.67%, driven by effective asset-liability management and loan repricing.
Consistent double-digit growth in Tangible Book Value Per Share, which reached $45.80 as of March 31, 2026 (up 13.5% YoY).
Proactive capital allocation through an active share repurchase program, including a new 550,000 share authorization (~5% of outstanding stock).
Conservative credit culture with a robust Allowance for Credit Losses (ACL) at 1.29% of gross loans and 186% coverage of nonperforming loans.

Key Investment Risks

Concentration in agricultural and commercial real estate lending, exposing the bank to sector-specific economic downturns.
Funding cost pressures from approximately $1.3 billion in certificates of deposit repricing over the next 12 months, which could compress margins if renewed at higher rates.
Slower-than-expected loan growth in core Midwestern markets.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Interest Margin (NIM) falling below 3.40% for two consecutive quarters.
Nonperforming assets (NPAs) rising above 1.50% of total assets.
Annualized tangible book value growth slowing to under 5%

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.