SoundThinking Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.12 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $8.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $111.7M Enterprise Value $109.3M Shares Outstanding 13M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) is transitioning from a single-product gunshot detection provider (ShotSpotter) into a diversified public safety technology platform (SafetySmart). While Q1 2026 results were pressured by seasonal cost concentration and the absence of prior-year catch-up revenues, management's reaffirmation of full-year guidance highlights strong back-half visibility. The company's valuation is highly attractive at under 1.0x EV/Revenue, offering a compelling entry point as cost-optimization measures take effect and high-margin recurring revenue scales. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$13.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Municipal budget constraints and the loss of ARPA funding lead to higher-than-expected customer attrition. SafePointe integration continues to drain cash with losses exceeding expectations, and delayed contract signings push revenue growth below historical averages. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its platform expansion strategy, driving SafePointe and CrimeTracer adoption while maintaining stable ShotSpotter renewals. Annualized cost savings of $4 million from workforce optimization support margin expansion, allowing the company to meet its 16% to 18% Adjusted EBITDA margin target for FY 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario SoundThinking's core ShotSpotter platform maintains a strong data moat with high customer retention (99% gross retention), while its newly integrated SafePointe weapons detection segment is projected to scale rapidly to $50 million in revenue within five years, driving significant operating leverage and a path to profitability by 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |