Snowflake Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $381.16median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $341.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $120.7B Enterprise Value $121.2B Shares Outstanding 350.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Snowflake entered the pending Q2 FY2027 report with strong operating momentum: Q1 product revenue grew 34%, remaining performance obligations grew 38%, and management raised FY2027 product-revenue and non-GAAP operating-margin guidance. AI adoption is becoming material to engagement, with more than 13,600 accounts using AI capabilities. Nevertheless, the August 28 closing quote of $328.00 already reflects substantial execution expectations. A Hold balances accelerating growth, expanding large-customer adoption, and improving non-GAAP operating leverage against consumption-model volatility, competition, continued GAAP losses, and the risk of sharp multiple compression after a guidance miss. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$110.00 Mean target$308.93 High · most bullish analyst$500.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $110.0019% Product revenue falls below the Q2 guidance floor, net revenue retention drops below 120%, or AI adoption does not translate into durable consumption. A guidance reduction or stalled operating leverage would challenge the premium expectations embedded in the current share price. Base CaseCentral scenario $308.9356% Matches the consensus meanSnowflake executes near the $1.415 billion-$1.420 billion Q2 product-revenue range and approximately delivers its $5.84 billion FY2027 product-revenue plan while non-GAAP operating margin progresses toward 13.5%. The base target is an internal scenario judgment referenced to the issuer-reported $328.00 market price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $500.0025% Product revenue exceeds the Q2 guidance ceiling, net revenue retention remains near or above 126%, AI workloads accelerate core-platform consumption, and Snowflake raises its FY2027 outlook again. Sustained growth above the current plan with improving operating leverage supports a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |