Smurfit WestRock plc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPackaging & Containers Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $50.93median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$113based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $43.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.6B Enterprise Value $35.1B Shares Outstanding 527M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Smurfit WestRock offers meaningful medium-term operating and capital-return potential, but the latest evidence is mixed. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was USD 1.14 billion and margin was 14.2%, versus USD 1.213 billion and 15.3% a year earlier, as elevated freight and other input costs outweighed progress in pricing and operations. Management now expects FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of USD 4.9-5.1 billion, below its February expectation of USD 5.0-5.3 billion, although approximately USD 1.3 billion is expected in Q3. The longer-term opportunity remains substantial: management targets approximately USD 7 billion of adjusted EBITDA by 2030, approximately 300 basis points of margin expansion, approximately USD 14 billion of cumulative discretionary free cash flow and net debt to EBITDA below 2.0x. A Hold recommendation balances that upside against near-term margin pressure and execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$56.43 High · most bullish analyst$68.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.0020% Input-cost recovery takes longer than management expects, adjusted EBITDA falls below USD 4.9 billion for FY2026, quarterly margin declines below the Q2 2026 level of 14.2%, and facility closures or North American improvement initiatives fail to generate the intended benefits. This would reduce confidence in the approximately USD 7 billion 2030 adjusted EBITDA objective and constrain capital returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $56.4356% Matches the consensus meanSmurfit WestRock delivers within its USD 4.9-5.1 billion FY2026 adjusted EBITDA range, recovers input inflation with a lag and advances gradually toward its 2030 objectives. Margin improvement is meaningful but uneven because of packaging-cycle conditions and restructuring execution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $68.0024% Pricing catches up with freight and other input costs, Q3 adjusted EBITDA reaches approximately USD 1.3 billion, FY2026 performance reaches the top of or exceeds the USD 4.9-5.1 billion range, and North American operational improvements accelerate progress toward the 2030 targets. The progressive dividend policy and potential buybacks from 2027 add to shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |