SLM Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $21.31median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $5.5B Shares Outstanding 190.9M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SLM Corp (Sallie Mae) is the clear market leader in private student lending, holding a dominant market share of over 60%. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust operational performance, characterized by a significant earnings beat ($1.54 EPS vs. $1.15 consensus) and an upward revision of full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $3.10 - $3.20. SLM's transition toward an asset-light growth model—supported by strategic loan sales and aggressive capital return programs (including a $200 million accelerated share repurchase)—positions it to deliver high return on equity (ROCE of 56.4% in Q1 2026) and strong shareholder value. Furthermore, anticipated federal reforms in graduate lending (Grad PLUS) represent a multi-year tailwind that could boost originations by up to 70% over the next several years. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$28.55 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.00 Macroeconomic pressures lead to rising student loan defaults, pushing net charge-offs above the guided $385 million ceiling and requiring substantial provisioning. Intense competition for retail deposits increases funding costs, compressing the net interest margin below 5.00%. Delays or unfavorable modifications to federal student lending reforms limit long-term origination growth, while market volatility restricts the company's ability to execute profitable loan sales, slowing down capital return initiatives. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.55 Matches the consensus meanSLM successfully achieves its revised full-year 2026 guidance, delivering diluted EPS of $3.10 - $3.20 and private education loan originations growth of 12% - 14%. Net interest margin moderates slightly from Q1's 5.29% but remains healthy above 5.10%. Credit quality remains stable with net charge-offs within the guided range of $345 million - $385 million. The company fully utilizes its $500 million share repurchase authorization, supporting steady capital return and valuation multiple expansion toward historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.00 Federal student lending reforms are implemented smoothly, driving a rapid expansion in graduate and undergraduate private loan originations (up to 70% growth over the next few years). Net interest margins remain highly resilient above 5.30% due to disciplined deposit pricing and lower funding costs. Credit performance exceeds expectations with net charge-offs coming in below the $345 million floor, allowing for reserve releases. Aggressive share buybacks continue to shrink the share count rapidly, driving EPS well above the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |