Sirius XM Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $46.70median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$159based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 82% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+82%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.6B Enterprise Value $17.9B Shares Outstanding 340M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary SiriusXM's second-quarter execution improved materially: self-pay net additions turned positive, churn reached a record low, advertising revenue grew, margins expanded, and management raised 2026 free-cash-flow guidance. These gains are balanced by a largely flat core subscriber base, continued contraction in Pandora users and listening hours, and meaningful leverage. With the shares at $28.105 on August 31, 2026, the risk-reward appears balanced rather than compelling. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$32.00 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0025% Positive second-quarter additions prove temporary, voluntary churn rises, and weaker vehicle conversions restart subscriber losses. Pandora user and listening-hour declines accelerate, advertising momentum weakens, and leverage constrains capital returns, causing a material valuation reset. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.0055% Matches the consensus meanCore subscription revenue remains resilient and low churn broadly offsets modest conversion pressure, while advertising growth and cost discipline support cash generation. Pandora's audience continues contracting, limiting consolidated growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.0020% Retention initiatives, companion subscriptions and dealer plans sustain positive self-pay additions while pricing supports ARPU. Podcasting and programmatic advertising continue growing, Pandora monetization offsets audience attrition, and strong cash generation permits further deleveraging and shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |