Shopify Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInternet Services & Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)2.04 Intrinsic Value $111.92median of 6 methods · middle span $78-$139based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $149.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $193.5B Enterprise Value $191.8B Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Shopify's Q2 2026 execution was exceptional: GMV increased 32%, revenue increased 34%, gross profit increased 31%, and free-cash-flow margin reached 18%. Management also guided Q3 revenue growth to the low-thirties and free-cash-flow margin to the high-teens-to-low-twenties range. These results support a durable growth thesis, but the issuer's $153.21 share quote already embeds substantial confidence in continued execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$110.00 Mean target$167.89 High · most bullish analyst$220.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $110.0023% Revenue growth falls below 30%, free-cash-flow margin drops below the high-teens outlook, or weaker consumer spending, tariffs, third-party dependencies, cybersecurity events, or slower AI adoption disrupt expected compounding. A material expectations reset follows because the current share price assumes sustained high growth and operating discipline. Base CaseCentral scenario $167.8955% Matches the consensus meanRevenue growth moderates from Q2's 34% rate but remains near management's low-thirties Q3 outlook, while free-cash-flow margin remains in the high teens. Strong platform execution is partly offset by the expectations already reflected in the $153.21 share price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $220.0022% Shopify sustains revenue growth above 30%, maintains free-cash-flow margins near or above 20%, and converts its commerce data, Sidekick, Catalog, and agentic-commerce initiatives into stronger merchant acquisition and monetization. Continued broad-based growth across merchant sizes, channels, and geographies supports a premium valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |