S & T Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

S & T Bancorp Inc

STBANASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $33.41median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $49.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.7B

Enterprise Value $1.7B

Shares Outstanding 36.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

S&T Bancorp Inc. (STBA) continues to demonstrate robust financial health, characterized by strong return metrics (ROA of 1.44% and ROTE of 13.22% in Q1 2026) and a resilient net interest margin (3.92%). The bank achieved record customer deposit growth, surpassing $8 billion for the first time in its history, which allowed it to reduce wholesale funding. However, loan balances declined by $112.6 million in Q1 2026 due to a reduced commercial pipeline, higher commercial real estate payoffs, and lower utilization on revolving credit facilities. Profitability is expected to remain relatively flat over the next two years, with ROA and ROE projected at approximately 1.4% and 9% respectively. Given the stagnant profitability expectations, weaker loan growth, and limited near-term upside relative to the consensus analyst price target of $45.67, a Hold recommendation is warranted.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$51.00

Mean target$53.33

High · most bullish analyst$57.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes S&T Bancorp successfully stabilizes its loan portfolio, achieving low single-digit loan growth starting in Q2 2026. Net interest margin is expected to remain relatively stable around 3.92% for the remainder of 2026, supported by a strong core deposit base and disciplined capital management. Share repurchases will continue under the authorized $100 million program, supporting EPS and return on tangible common equity. Profitability metrics will remain flat, with ROA hovering around 1.4% and ROE around 9%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Resilient Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 3.92% supported by a strong core deposit franchise and low funding costs.
Robust capital position and active capital return, highlighted by a new $100 million share repurchase program authorized in January 2026.
Strong asset quality with nonperforming assets (NPAs) decreasing to 0.63% of total loans in Q1 2026.
Consistent dividend track record with 13 consecutive years of dividend increases, offering a healthy yield of over 3%.

Key Investment Risks

Weaker loan growth and contraction in loan balances due to competitive pricing and commercial real estate payoffs.
Stagnant profitability expectations with ROA and ROE projected to remain flat over the next two years.
Core fee income pressure due to a challenging mortgage banking environment.
Sensitivity of deposit balances to seasonal or temporary fluctuations, with only a portion of recent growth considered durable core growth.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net interest margin compressing significantly below the 3.7% threshold due to aggressive deposit pricing competition.
Continued sequential contraction in loan balances throughout 2026, invalidating the low single-digit growth guidance.
A sharp deterioration in credit quality, marked by a significant rise in nonperforming assets and net charge-offs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.