Republic Services Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $216.51median of 6 methods · middle span $179-$283based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $206.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $63.4B Enterprise Value $77B Shares Outstanding 307.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Republic Services entered the second half of 2026 with resilient pricing, a stable consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin and increased full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free-cash-flow guidance. Those strengths are offset by a 1.6% quarterly volume decline and materially weaker Environmental Solutions profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$208.00 Mean target$245.92 High · most bullish analyst$272.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $208.0020% Volume contraction persists, Environmental Solutions margins remain depressed and acquisition integration or macroeconomic pressures weaken cash conversion. In this outcome, Republic falls below the lower bounds of its increased revenue or adjusted free-cash-flow guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $245.9255% Matches the consensus meanRepublic broadly delivers its increased 2026 guidance as pricing and cost discipline offset subdued volumes, while Environmental Solutions remains a profitability drag. Bull CaseUpside scenario $272.0025% Pricing continues to exceed cost inflation, volumes recover, Environmental Solutions profitability improves and acquired operations integrate successfully. Under this outcome, Republic reaches the upper portions of its increased 2026 guidance ranges while renewable-natural-gas projects and disciplined capital returns add incremental support. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |