ReNew Energy Global plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

ReNew Energy Global plc

RNWNASDAQ

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Renewable

Beta (adjusted)1.09

Intrinsic Value $7.57median of 6 methods · middle span $6-$23based on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $6.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.5B

Enterprise Value $8.8B

Shares Outstanding 364.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ReNew Energy Global plc (RNW) has entered a stronger strategic phase, delivering record FY26 profitability and rapid capacity additions, including commissioning 2.4 GW in FY26 to reach 12.6 GW of operating capacity and a gross portfolio of ~20 GW. Following the termination of the take-private discussions in December 2025, the company is focused on organic growth, vertical integration in solar manufacturing (6.5 GW module and 2.5 GW cell capacity), and capital recycling. While operational execution is strong, high leverage remains a key watch item.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.07

Mean target$7.92

High · most bullish analyst$8.52

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$7.07

The take-private proposal falls through due to minority shareholder pushback or regulatory hurdles, causing the stock to drift down to pre-proposal levels. The company's high leverage (Debt/Equity ~543%) and weak interest coverage become primary concerns in a high-interest-rate environment, exacerbated by potential grid constraints or delayed receivables conversion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$7.92

Matches the consensus mean

ReNew continues to execute on its growth strategy as an independent public company, adding 1.6 to 2.4 GW of capacity annually in line with guidance. Profitability remains stable, supported by long-term PPAs and vertical integration, while leverage is gradually managed through capital recycling and equity partnerships.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$8.52

ReNew accelerates its capacity additions beyond guidance, driven by strong execution and supportive Indian policy frameworks. The solar manufacturing business (expanding cell capacity by 4 GW by December 2026) achieves higher-than-expected margins, and aggressive capital recycling successfully deleverages the balance sheet, leading to valuation multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record financial performance in FY26 with Adjusted EBITDA of INR 98.5 billion (up 25% YoY) and Net Profit of INR 10.4 billion (up 2.3x YoY).
One of the largest clean energy portfolios globally (~20 GW gross capacity) with a strong leadership position in India's rapidly growing renewable market.
Successful vertical integration into solar module (6.4 GW) and cell (2.5 GW) manufacturing, providing significant standalone EBITDA contribution.
Strong ESG credentials, including an MSCI AAA rating, S&P Global CSA score of 84, and entry into the CDP Climate Change 'A List'.

Key Investment Risks

High leverage profile with substantial debt, leading to refinancing and interest coverage risks in a volatile macroeconomic environment.
High leverage profile with total debt of INR 785.25 billion and a Debt/Equity ratio of ~543%, leading to refinancing and interest coverage risks.
Exposure to regulatory changes in power tariffs, land acquisition delays, and grid connectivity constraints in India.
Currency volatility (INR/USD) affecting the valuation of dollar-denominated debt and equity returns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant delays in commissioning new capacity or failure to meet the annual guidance of 1.6 to 2.4 GW.
A material weakening of supportive policy frameworks or a significant decline in power demand in India, which would undermine the long-term growth backdrop.
Severe delays in the commissioning of the 4 GW solar cell manufacturing expansion scheduled for December 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.