Progressive Corp Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $190.86median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $210.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $122.4B Enterprise Value $129.2B Shares Outstanding 586M diluted Next Earnings Date14 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Progressive's operating evidence remains strong: July 2026 produced an 86.8 combined ratio, total policies in force increased 7% year over year to 40.304 million, and net premiums written grew 5%. The counterweight is moderation from faster prior growth and weaker latest-period earnings, with July net income and per-share income down 12% and 11%, respectively. This supports a balanced Hold rather than an aggressive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$198.00 Mean target$229.78 High · most bullish analyst$308.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $180.0020% Loss-cost or catastrophe pressure drives the combined ratio above the 96 goal while policy growth slows materially, reducing underwriting earnings and compressing the valuation investors assign to the shares. Base CaseCentral scenario $229.7855% Matches the consensus meanUnderwriting remains profitable, but policy and premium growth normalize toward mid-single digits and year-over-year comparisons become more demanding. Bull CaseUpside scenario $280.0025% Sustained underwriting margins materially better than the 96 combined-ratio goal, together with continued high-single-digit policy growth, would support further earnings compounding and a premium valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |