Portland General Electric Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Portland General Electric Co

PORNYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $47.94median of 6 methods · middle span $42-$59based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $44.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.3B

Enterprise Value $10.2B

Shares Outstanding 117.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend25 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Portland General Electric (POR) presents a balanced utility profile with strong secular tailwinds from Pacific Northwest data center and high-tech industrial demand, offset by near-term weather headwinds and regulatory execution risks. While industrial load grew 10% in Q1 2026, unusually mild winter weather pressured residential and commercial volumes, leading to a Q1 earnings miss. Management has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 and long-term growth targets of 5% to 7%. However, with the stock trading near its consensus fair value of $51.00, the current risk-reward profile is balanced, supporting a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$53.05

High · most bullish analyst$62.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.0015%

Persistent mild weather, delays in regulatory approvals for the Washington acquisition or holding company structure, and higher-than-expected financing costs drag down earnings. Volatility in wholesale power markets and rising wildfire mitigation expenditures pressure cash flows, leading to earnings at or below the low end of the $3.33 guidance range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$53.0560%

Matches the consensus mean

PGE successfully manages near-term weather-driven volume shortfalls through disciplined cost control, achieving mid-range 2026 adjusted EPS of approximately $3.43. The company continues to execute its $7.6 billion five-year capital plan, supported by steady load growth of 1.5% to 2.5% and a stable 4.2% dividend yield, keeping the stock valued in line with historical utility multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$62.0025%

Accelerating data center load growth and constructive regulatory outcomes, such as the 'growth pays for growth' framework under Oregon's POWER Act (UM2377), drive rapid rate base expansion. Successful integration of the $1.9 billion Washington state utility asset acquisition from PacifiCorp by 2027 provides geographic diversification and higher ratebase growth, pushing earnings to the top end of guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Robust industrial demand driven by Pacific Northwest data centers and high-tech customers (10% growth in Q1 2026).
Constructive regulatory framework in Oregon, including the innovative 'growth pays for growth' tariff structure for large-load customers.
Strong dividend track record with 20 consecutive years of dividend increases and a forward yield of over 4.1%.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to weather volatility, as demonstrated by the mild winter weather that depressed Q1 2026 residential and commercial loads.
Regulatory and execution risks associated with the $1.9 billion PacifiCorp Washington asset acquisition and holding company application.
Rising capital requirements and financing costs in a high-interest-rate environment, which could pressure the CFO-to-debt ratio.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Rejection or material delay of the Washington utility operations acquisition by regulators.
A significant downward revision of the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range below $3.33.
Adverse regulatory rulings by the OPUC regarding power cost recovery or allowed Return on Equity (ROE).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.