Plumas Bancorp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Plumas Bancorp

PLBCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value $40.17median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $61.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $428.8M

Enterprise Value $307.6M

Shares Outstanding 7.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Plumas Bancorp (NASDAQ: PLBC) represents a highly profitable, well-capitalized community bank franchise operating in attractive markets across northeastern California and northwestern Nevada. Following the successful integration of Cornerstone Community Bancorp, the bank has achieved record earnings, driven by a robust Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 4.91% and a low cost of funds. Despite industry-wide headwinds in SBA loan sales and rising compensation costs, Plumas maintains superior profitability metrics (ROA of 1.78% and ROE of 14.22%) that significantly outperform regional banking peers. Backed by a newly authorized $25 million share repurchase program and a steady dividend yield, the stock offers an attractive risk-reward profile with solid fundamental support.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$64.00

Mean target$66.33

High · most bullish analyst$69.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$50.0015%

Persistent high interest rates continue to freeze the SBA loan secondary market, keeping gain-on-sale revenue depressed through 2027. Rising deposit competition forces Plumas to raise deposit rates, compressing NIM. Regional economic slowdowns in California or Nevada lead to an uptick in non-performing assets (NPAs) and require higher provisions for credit losses.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$57.6760%

Plumas maintains a stable NIM near current levels, supported by its strong local deposit franchise. Loan and deposit growth track in the mid-single digits, in line with regional economic trends. Higher compensation costs under the 2026 incentive plan are offset by steady core fee income of $2.6 million per quarter. Share repurchases under the $25 million authorization provide steady EPS support.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$69.0025%

NIM expansion continues to outperform expectations due to fixed-asset repricing tailwinds and a highly sticky, low-cost deposit base. Loan growth in the expanded California and Nevada footprint accelerates faster than budgeted, while credit quality remains pristine with net recoveries. The bank successfully resumes SBA loan sales ahead of schedule, driving non-interest income higher.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading profitability with a Return on Average Assets (ROA) of 1.78% and Return on Equity (ROE) of 14.22%.
Strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 4.91% driven by low-cost core deposits and investment restructuring.
Robust capital position with capital ratios significantly exceeding regulatory 'well-capitalized' guidelines.
Active capital return through a $25 million share repurchase program and a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Geographical concentration in northeastern California and northwestern Nevada, exposing the bank to localized economic downturns.
Depressed non-interest income due to a frozen SBA loan secondary market, limiting gain-on-sale revenue.
Rising core non-interest expenses driven by higher compensation costs and inflationary pressures.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant compression of the Net Interest Margin below 4.20% due to rapid deposit beta acceleration.
A material spike in non-performing loans (NPLs) or net charge-offs (NCOs) indicating deteriorating credit quality.
Failure to execute the $25 million share repurchase program due to capital preservation needs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.